A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
