Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
